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Central Valley Fuego vs Union Omaha — USL League One 2019

Central Valley Fuego
Central Valley Fuego
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Union Omaha
Union Omaha
4/9/2023USL League OneUSL League One · Round 3Fresno State Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Central Valley Fuego27%
×Draw26%
Union Omaha47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Valley Fuego
1.08
Union Omaha
1.50

Union Omaha creates 39% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 87 away

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego
1.00
Union Omaha
1.34

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego
1.67
Union Omaha
1.17

finishing

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par
Union Omaha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego ↓

Union Omaha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego or draw
53%
Central Valley Fuego or Union Omaha
74%
Draw or Union Omaha
73%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+
10%
Union Omaha wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals
66%
Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals
29%
Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals
10%
Union Omaha 1+ goals
78%
Union Omaha 2+ goals
44%
Union Omaha 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)
37%
Union Omaha (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

Union Omaha away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.00 + Union Omaha defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Union Omaha attack 1.34 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Central Valley Fuego scores more
27%
level
26%
Union Omaha scores more
47%

Union Omaha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Omaha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Valley Fuego vs Union Omaha

Union Omaha beat Central Valley Fuego 2-0 in USL League One on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Fresno State Soccer Stadium in Fresno, California.