Central Stallions 4–1 Bayanzürkh Sporting

Central Stallions

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bayanzürkh Sporting

7/19/2025

Premier League · Round 27Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Central Stallions34%

×Draw18%

Bayanzürkh Sporting48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central StallionsExpected goals in this matchBayanzürkh Sporting

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

2.85

Central Stallions

2.40

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.85

Bayanzürkh Sporting creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 28 away

2.00

creates per match

2.29

3.42

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Central Stallions

2.00

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.29

allows per match

Central Stallions

3.42

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Stallions+0.00on par

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Stallions ↓

Bayanzürkh Sporting →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–25%

1–35%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Central Stallions or draw

52%

Central Stallions or Bayanzürkh Sporting

82%

Draw or Bayanzürkh Sporting

66%

Winning margin

Central Stallions wins by 2+

19%

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Central Stallions 1+ goals

91%

Central Stallions 2+ goals

69%

Central Stallions 3+ goals

42%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals

94%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals

77%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Central Stallions (draw refunded)

41%

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

82%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Stallions at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.42 · 38 matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Stallions attack 2.00 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.40

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 2.29 + Central Stallions defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Central Stallions scores more

34%

level

18%

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more

48%

Bayanzürkh Sporting at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bayanzürkh Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff