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Bayanzürkh Sporting vs Central Stallions — Premier League 2020

Bayanzürkh Sporting
Bayanzürkh Sporting
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Central Stallions
Central Stallions
4/12/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting27%
×Draw19%
Central Stallions55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayanzürkh Sporting
1.86
Central Stallions
2.67

Central Stallions creates 44% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 38 away

creates per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting
1.15
Central Stallions
2.21

allows per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting
3.12
Central Stallions
2.58

finishing

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par
Central Stallions+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayanzürkh Sporting ↓

Central Stallions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Bayanzürkh Sporting or draw
45%
Bayanzürkh Sporting or Central Stallions
81%
Draw or Central Stallions
73%

Winning margin

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+
13%
Central Stallions wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals
84%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals
55%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals
28%
Central Stallions 1+ goals
93%
Central Stallions 2+ goals
74%
Central Stallions 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)
33%
Central Stallions (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayanzürkh Sporting at home — creates 1.15, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

Central Stallions away — creates 2.21, concedes 2.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 1.15 + Central Stallions defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.86

Central Stallions attack 2.21 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more
27%
level
19%
Central Stallions scores more
55%

Central Stallions at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Central Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bayanzürkh Sporting 1–3 Central Stallions

Central Stallions beat Bayanzürkh Sporting 3-1 in Premier League on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.