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Central Stallions vs Bavarians — Premier League 2020

Central Stallions
Central Stallions
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bavarians
Bavarians
K. Yamakami 51'
S. Nakamura 22'
H. Tosaka 87'
4/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Central Stallions57%
×Draw17%
Bavarians26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Stallions
3.35
Bavarians
2.29

Central Stallions creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

creates per match

Central Stallions
2.00
Bavarians
1.15

allows per match

Central Stallions
3.42
Bavarians
4.69

finishing

Central Stallions+0.00on par
Bavarians+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Stallions ↓

Bavarians →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Central Stallions or draw
74%
Central Stallions or Bavarians
83%
Draw or Bavarians
43%

Winning margin

Central Stallions wins by 2+
39%
Bavarians wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Central Stallions 1+ goals
96%
Central Stallions 2+ goals
84%
Central Stallions 3+ goals
63%
Bavarians 1+ goals
90%
Bavarians 2+ goals
66%
Bavarians 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Central Stallions (draw refunded)
69%
Bavarians (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Stallions at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.42 · 38 matches

Bavarians away — creates 1.15, concedes 4.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Stallions attack 2.00 + Bavarians defence 4.69 → ÷2 → 3.35

Bavarians attack 1.15 + Central Stallions defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Central Stallions scores more
57%
level
17%
Bavarians scores more
26%

Central Stallions at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Central Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
S. Nakamura
51'
K. Yamakami
87'
H. Tosaka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Stallions vs Bavarians

Central Stallions beat Bavarians 2-1 in Premier League on April 6, 2024.

Goals: S. Nakamura (22'), K. Yamakami (51'), H. Tosaka (87').

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.