Bavarians 3–4 Central Stallions: Result & Stats

Bavarians

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Central Stallions

D. Monkhdemberel 68'

D. Addison 63'

A. M. Joao 45+2'

T. Tsedenbal 59'

Y. Miyajima 36'

K. Tsend-Ayush 25', 10'

8/27/2023

Premier League · Round 5Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bavarians13%

×Draw12%

Central Stallions75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BavariansExpected goals in this matchCentral Stallions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

4.42

Bavarians

1.94

Central Stallions

4.42

Central Stallions creates 128% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 38 away

1.29

creates per match

2.21

6.64

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Bavarians

1.29

Central Stallions

2.21

allows per match

Bavarians

6.64

Central Stallions

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bavarians+0.00on par

Central Stallions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bavarians ↓

Central Stallions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–33%

0–43%

1

1–00%

1–12%

1–24%

1–36%

1–46%

2

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–34%

3–44%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

85%15%4.5

71%29%

Double chance

Bavarians or draw

25%

Bavarians or Central Stallions

88%

Draw or Central Stallions

87%

Winning margin

Bavarians wins by 2+

6%

Central Stallions wins by 2+

58%

Team goals

Bavarians 1+ goals

86%

Bavarians 2+ goals

58%

Bavarians 3+ goals

30%

Central Stallions 1+ goals

99%

Central Stallions 2+ goals

92%

Central Stallions 3+ goals

78%

Draw no bet

Bavarians (draw refunded)

15%

Central Stallions (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bavarians at home — creates 1.29, concedes 6.64 · 14 matches

Central Stallions away — creates 2.21, concedes 2.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bavarians attack 1.29 + Central Stallions defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.94

Central Stallions attack 2.21 + Bavarians defence 6.64 → ÷2 → 4.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Bavarians scores more

13%

level

12%

Central Stallions scores more

75%

Central Stallions at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Central Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

K. Tsend-Ayush

25'

K. Tsend-Ayush

36'

Y. Miyajima

45+2'

A. M. Joao

59'

T. Tsedenbal

63'

D. Addison

68'

D. Monkhdemberel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff