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Central SC vs ABC — Serie D 2026

Central SC
Central SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ABC
ABC
E. Esquerdinha 90'
5/10/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Central SC40%
×Draw30%
ABC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central SC
1.13
ABC
0.95

Central SC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

creates per match

Central SC
1.29
ABC
1.19

allows per match

Central SC
0.71
ABC
0.96

finishing

Central SC+0.00on par
ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central SC ↓

ABC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Central SC or draw
70%
Central SC or ABC
70%
Draw or ABC
60%

Winning margin

Central SC wins by 2+
16%
ABC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Central SC 1+ goals
68%
Central SC 2+ goals
31%
Central SC 3+ goals
11%
ABC 1+ goals
61%
ABC 2+ goals
25%
ABC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Central SC (draw refunded)
57%
ABC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

ABC away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central SC attack 1.29 + ABC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

ABC attack 1.19 + Central SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Central SC scores more
40%
level
30%
ABC scores more
30%

Central SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Central SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
90'
E. Esquerdinha
Central
ABC
Leandro Sena
Manager: Leandro Sena
Dias Waguinho
Manager: Dias Waguinho

Match Recap: Central SC vs ABC

ABC beat Central SC 1-0 in Serie D on May 10, 2026.

Goals: E. Esquerdinha (90').