Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ABC vs Central SC — Serie D 2026

ABC
ABC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Central SC
Central SC
Wellington Carvalho 14'
Caio Vinicius 41'
5/2/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

ABC59%
×Draw25%
Central SC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.61
Central SC
0.70

ABC creates 130% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 37 away

creates per match

ABC
2.28
Central SC
0.84

allows per match

ABC
0.56
Central SC
0.95

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
Central SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Central SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ABC or draw
84%
ABC or Central SC
75%
Draw or Central SC
41%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
32%
Central SC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
80%
ABC 2+ goals
48%
ABC 3+ goals
22%
Central SC 1+ goals
50%
Central SC 2+ goals
16%
Central SC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
79%
Central SC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.56 · 25 matches

Central SC away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 2.28 + Central SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.61

Central SC attack 0.84 + ABC defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

ABC scores more
59%
level
25%
Central SC scores more
16%

ABC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Wellington Carvalho
41'
Caio Vinicius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: ABC 1–1 Central SC

ABC and Central SC drew 1-1 in Serie D on May 2, 2026.

Goals: Wellington Carvalho (14'), Caio Vinicius (41').