Central Espanol 2–1 Artigas: Result & Stats

Central Espanol

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Artigas

G. Martínez 90+1'

J. Villalpando 23'

J. dos Santos 11'

3/9/2025

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 1Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Central Espanol43%

×Draw27%

Artigas30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central EspanolExpected goals in this matchArtigas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Central Espanol

1.33

Artigas

1.06

Central Espanol creates 25% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

1.12

creates per match

1.20

0.92

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Central Espanol

1.12

Artigas

1.20

allows per match

Central Espanol

0.92

Artigas

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Espanol+0.00on par

Artigas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Espanol ↓

Artigas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Central Espanol or draw

70%

Central Espanol or Artigas

73%

Draw or Artigas

57%

Winning margin

Central Espanol wins by 2+

20%

Artigas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Central Espanol 1+ goals

74%

Central Espanol 2+ goals

38%

Central Espanol 3+ goals

15%

Artigas 1+ goals

65%

Artigas 2+ goals

29%

Artigas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Central Espanol (draw refunded)

59%

Artigas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Espanol at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Artigas away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Espanol attack 1.12 + Artigas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Artigas attack 1.20 + Central Espanol defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Central Espanol scores more

43%

level

27%

Artigas scores more

30%

Central Espanol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Central Espanol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

J. dos Santos

23'

J. Villalpando

26'

F. Muñoz← G. Gandolfo

65'

L. Troncoso← M. Núñez

69'

J. Dupont← E. Aramburu

70'

B. Bica← O. Pereira

77'

F. Yocco← F. Camarda

77'

S. Sequeira← R. Tarragona

81'

G. Orozco← I. Viera

82'

S. Vargas← N. Suárez

90+1'

G. Martínez

Central

Artigas

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. de Ambrosio

26'▲F. Muñoz←▼G. Gandolfo

69'▲J. Dupont←▼E. Aramburu

77'▲F. Yocco←▼F. Camarda

77'▲S. Sequeira←▼R. Tarragona

Central Espanol substitutes

MuñozDupontYoccoSequeiraCuadroGonellaArbíoMachadoCanteraPereyra

Manager: C. Bueno

65'▲L. Troncoso←▼M. Núñez

70'▲B. Bica←▼O. Pereira

81'▲G. Orozco←▼I. Viera

82'▲S. Vargas←▼N. Suárez

Artigas substitutes

TroncosoBicaOrozcoVargasBarcellosLunaLemosCoelloPazLaporte

Segunda División: Central Espanol 2–1 Artigas

Central Espanol beat Artigas 2-1 in Segunda División on March 9, 2025.

Goals: J. dos Santos (11'), J. Villalpando (23'), G. Martínez (90+1').

The match was played at Parque Palermo in Montevideo.

Central Espanol vs Artigas — Segunda División 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Central Espanol 2–1 Artigas