Artigas 1–2 Central Espanol: Result & Stats

Artigas

FT

1 – 2

Central Espanol

9/27/2025

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Artigas28%

×Draw27%

Central Espanol45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtigasExpected goals in this matchCentral Espanol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.42

Artigas

1.06

Central Espanol

1.42

Central Espanol creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

1.13

creates per match

0.96

1.88

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Artigas

1.13

Central Espanol

0.96

allows per match

Artigas

1.88

Central Espanol

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artigas+0.00on par

Central Espanol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artigas ↓

Central Espanol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Artigas or draw

55%

Artigas or Central Espanol

73%

Draw or Central Espanol

72%

Winning margin

Artigas wins by 2+

11%

Central Espanol wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Artigas 1+ goals

65%

Artigas 2+ goals

29%

Artigas 3+ goals

9%

Central Espanol 1+ goals

76%

Central Espanol 2+ goals

41%

Central Espanol 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Artigas (draw refunded)

38%

Central Espanol (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artigas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Central Espanol away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artigas attack 1.13 + Central Espanol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Central Espanol attack 0.96 + Artigas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Artigas scores more

28%

level

27%

Central Espanol scores more

45%

Central Espanol at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Central Espanol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff