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Central Cordoba vs Atletico Atlas — Primera C 2026

Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Atlas
Atletico Atlas
T. Ramirez 65'
9/11/2023Primera CPrimera C · Round 34Estadio Gabino Sosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Central Cordoba43%
×Draw29%
Atletico Atlas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba
1.24
Atletico Atlas
0.95

Central Cordoba creates 31% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 104 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba
1.13
Atletico Atlas
1.07

allows per match

Central Cordoba
0.83
Atletico Atlas
1.35

finishing

Central Cordoba+0.00on par
Atletico Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba ↓

Atletico Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Central Cordoba or draw
72%
Central Cordoba or Atletico Atlas
71%
Draw or Atletico Atlas
57%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba wins by 2+
19%
Atletico Atlas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Central Cordoba 1+ goals
71%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
35%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
13%
Atletico Atlas 1+ goals
61%
Atletico Atlas 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Atlas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
60%
Atletico Atlas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 137 matches

Atletico Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba attack 1.13 + Atletico Atlas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Atletico Atlas attack 1.07 + Central Cordoba defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Central Cordoba scores more
43%
level
29%
Atletico Atlas scores more
28%

Central Cordoba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Central Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
T. Ramirez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Central Cordoba 1–0 Atletico Atlas

Central Cordoba beat Atletico Atlas 1-0 in Primera C on September 11, 2023.

Goals: T. Ramirez (65').

The match was played at Estadio Gabino Sosa in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.