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Atletico Atlas vs Central Cordoba — Primera C 2026

Atletico Atlas
Atletico Atlas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
F. Guiterrez 4'
7/21/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 3Estadio Ricardo Puga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Atletico Atlas39%
×Draw30%
Central Cordoba31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Atlas
1.14
Central Cordoba
0.99

Atletico Atlas creates 15% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 136 away

creates per match

Atletico Atlas
1.22
Central Cordoba
0.89

allows per match

Atletico Atlas
1.09
Central Cordoba
1.06

finishing

Atletico Atlas+0.00on par
Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Atlas ↓

Central Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atletico Atlas or draw
69%
Atletico Atlas or Central Cordoba
70%
Draw or Central Cordoba
61%

Winning margin

Atletico Atlas wins by 2+
16%
Central Cordoba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atletico Atlas 1+ goals
68%
Atletico Atlas 2+ goals
32%
Atletico Atlas 3+ goals
11%
Central Cordoba 1+ goals
63%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
26%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Atlas (draw refunded)
55%
Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Atlas at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Central Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Atlas attack 1.22 + Central Cordoba defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Central Cordoba attack 0.89 + Atletico Atlas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atletico Atlas scores more
39%
level
30%
Central Cordoba scores more
31%

Atletico Atlas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
F. Guiterrez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Atletico Atlas 1–0 Central Cordoba

Atletico Atlas beat Central Cordoba 1-0 in Primera C on July 21, 2024.

Goals: F. Guiterrez (4').

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Puga in General Rodríguez, Provincia de Buenos Aires.