Central Cordoba 0–2 Argentino Rosario

Central Cordoba

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Argentino Rosario

N. Avalos 85'

D. Aguirre 40'

3/2/2024

Primera C · Apertura - 5Estadio Gabino Sosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Central Cordoba42%

×Draw29%

Argentino Rosario29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central CordobaExpected goals in this matchArgentino Rosario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.97

Central Cordoba

1.21

Argentino Rosario

0.97

Central Cordoba creates 25% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 47 away

1.13

creates per match

1.11

0.83

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Central Cordoba

1.13

Argentino Rosario

1.11

allows per match

Central Cordoba

0.83

Argentino Rosario

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Argentino Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba ↓

Argentino Rosario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Central Cordoba or draw

71%

Central Cordoba or Argentino Rosario

71%

Draw or Argentino Rosario

58%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba wins by 2+

18%

Argentino Rosario wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Central Cordoba 1+ goals

70%

Central Cordoba 2+ goals

34%

Central Cordoba 3+ goals

12%

Argentino Rosario 1+ goals

62%

Argentino Rosario 2+ goals

25%

Argentino Rosario 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba (draw refunded)

59%

Argentino Rosario (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 137 matches

Argentino Rosario away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba attack 1.13 + Argentino Rosario defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Argentino Rosario attack 1.11 + Central Cordoba defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Central Cordoba scores more

42%

level

29%

Argentino Rosario scores more

29%

Central Cordoba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Central Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

D. Aguirre

85'

N. Avalos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff