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Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland — A-League 2018

Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Auckland
Auckland
12/28/2024A-LeagueA-League · Round 10Industree Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Central Coast Mariners28%
×Draw24%
Auckland48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast Mariners
1.22
Auckland
1.68

Auckland creates 38% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 28 away

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners
1.55
Auckland
1.75

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners
1.61
Auckland
0.89

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par
Auckland+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Auckland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw
52%
Central Coast Mariners or Auckland
76%
Draw or Auckland
72%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
11%
Auckland wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
70%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
34%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
12%
Auckland 1+ goals
81%
Auckland 2+ goals
50%
Auckland 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
37%
Auckland (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

Auckland away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.55 + Auckland defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.22

Auckland attack 1.75 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more
28%
level
24%
Auckland scores more
48%

Auckland at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Auckland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland

Auckland beat Central Coast Mariners 4-1 in A-League on December 28, 2024.

The match was played at Industree Group Stadium in Gosford.