Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Auckland vs Central Coast Mariners — A-League 2018

Auckland
Auckland
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
3/16/2025A-LeagueA-League · Round 23Go Media Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Auckland46%
×Draw24%
Central Coast Mariners30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auckland
1.65
Central Coast Mariners
1.29

Auckland creates 28% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 109 away

creates per match

Auckland
1.66
Central Coast Mariners
1.42

allows per match

Auckland
1.17
Central Coast Mariners
1.65

finishing

Auckland+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auckland ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Auckland or draw
70%
Auckland or Central Coast Mariners
76%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
54%

Winning margin

Auckland wins by 2+
24%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Auckland 1+ goals
81%
Auckland 2+ goals
49%
Auckland 3+ goals
23%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
72%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
37%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Auckland (draw refunded)
60%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auckland at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auckland attack 1.66 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.42 + Auckland defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Auckland scores more
46%
level
24%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
30%

Auckland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Auckland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auckland vs Central Coast Mariners

Auckland and Central Coast Mariners drew 2-2 in A-League on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Go Media Stadium in Auckland.