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Central Coast Mariners vs Abdish-Ata — AFC Cup 2018

Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Abdish-Ata
Abdish-Ata
M. Di Pizio 90+1', 77'
Mikael Doka 86'
4/24/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Inter-zonal FinalsIndustree Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Central Coast Mariners70%
×Draw16%
Abdish-Ata15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast Mariners
2.95
Abdish-Ata
1.31

Central Coast Mariners creates 125% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Central Coast Mariners
4.50
Abdish-Ata
1.80

allows per match

Central Coast Mariners
0.83
Abdish-Ata
1.40

finishing

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par
Abdish-Ata+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast Mariners ↓

Abdish-Ata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Central Coast Mariners or draw
85%
Central Coast Mariners or Abdish-Ata
84%
Draw or Abdish-Ata
30%

Winning margin

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
50%
Abdish-Ata wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
95%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
79%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
55%
Abdish-Ata 1+ goals
73%
Abdish-Ata 2+ goals
38%
Abdish-Ata 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
83%
Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast Mariners at home — creates 4.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Abdish-Ata away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast Mariners attack 4.50 + Abdish-Ata defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.95

Abdish-Ata attack 1.80 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Central Coast Mariners scores more
70%
level
16%
Abdish-Ata scores more
15%

Central Coast Mariners at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39
M. Di PizioCentral Coast MarinersCentral Coast Mariners · M
8.7

Match Events

29'
Magamed Uzdenov
41'
Ayzar Akmatov
42'
Mikael Doka
42'
Ernist Batyrkanov
60'
Danny Vukovic
62'
Farhat Musabekov
66'
M. Akhmataliev← A. Dzhumashev
67'
N. Sarykbaev← B. Sagynbaev
67'
A. Shamurzaev← A. Zhumataev
67'
S. Muhadow← E. Batyrkanov
68'
R. Edmondson← A. Kuol
72'
M. Di Pizio← C. Theoharous
77'
M. Di Pizio
82'
Brad Tapp
83'
H. Steele← B. Tapp
86'
Mikael Doka↳ J. Nisbet
90'
E. Abduzhaparov← A. Akmatov
90+1'
M. Di Pizio

Possession

46%Central

Shots

10Central

Pass accuracy

48%Central

Statistics

CentralAbdish-Ata
Overview
46%Possession54%
10Total Shots9
3Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots9
7On Target1
1Off Target6
2Blocked2
7Inside Box4
3Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
402Total Passes471
307Accurate Passes383
76%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls13
3Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Central Coast Mariners vs Abdish-Ata

Central Coast Mariners beat Abdish-Ata 3-0 in AFC Cup on April 24, 2024.

Goals: M. Di Pizio (77', 90+1'), Mikael Doka (86').

Abdish-Ata controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Industree Group Stadium in Gosford.