Abdish-Ata 1–1 Central Coast Mariners

Abdish-Ata

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Central Coast Mariners

M. Uzdenov 90+3'

B. Kaltak 81'

4/17/2024

AFC Cup · Inter-zonal FinalsStadion im. Dolena Omurzakova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Abdish-Ata62%

×Draw21%

Central Coast Mariners17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abdish-AtaExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast Mariners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.98

Abdish-Ata

2.05

Central Coast Mariners

0.98

Abdish-Ata creates 109% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

3.60

creates per match

1.17

0.80

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Abdish-Ata

3.60

Central Coast Mariners

1.17

allows per match

Abdish-Ata

0.80

Central Coast Mariners

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abdish-Ata+0.00on par

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abdish-Ata ↓

Central Coast Mariners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Abdish-Ata or draw

83%

Abdish-Ata or Central Coast Mariners

79%

Draw or Central Coast Mariners

38%

Winning margin

Abdish-Ata wins by 2+

38%

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Abdish-Ata 1+ goals

87%

Abdish-Ata 2+ goals

61%

Abdish-Ata 3+ goals

33%

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

62%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

26%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)

78%

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abdish-Ata at home — creates 3.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abdish-Ata attack 3.60 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.17 + Abdish-Ata defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Abdish-Ata scores more

62%

level

21%

Central Coast Mariners scores more

17%

Abdish-Ata at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

K. Zhyrgalbek

Abdish-Ata · M

7.6

Match Events

48'

Ernist Batyrkanov

56'

A. Dzhumashev← M. Akhmataliev

57'

Ayzar Akmatov

57'

S. Muhadow← E. Batyrkanov

62'

A. Zhumataev← A. Akmatov

62'

J. Reec← R. Edmondson

63'

M. Di Pizio← B. Tapp

68'

Christian Brauzman

79'

Teymur Çaryýev

81'

B. Kaltak↳ Mikael Doka

83'

Amantur Shamurzaev

83'

C. Theoharous← Mikael Doka

85'

N. Sarykbaev← A. Shamurzaev

90+3'

M. Uzdenov↳ K. Zhyrgalbek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Abdish-AtaCentral

Overview

66%Possession34%

14Total Shots4

7Corners0

13Fouls5

Shots

14Total Shots4

5On Target2

7Off Target2

2Blocked0

6Inside Box3

8Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

602Total Passes324

524Accurate Passes222

87%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls5

5Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3