Central Coast II 1–1 Blacktown City: Result & Stats

Central Coast II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blacktown City

C. Deng 56'

M. Fernandez 42'

7/21/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 25Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Central Coast II33%

×Draw23%

Blacktown City44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast IIExpected goals in this matchBlacktown City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.75

Central Coast II

1.48

Blacktown City

1.75

Blacktown City creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 96 away

1.53

creates per match

1.67

1.83

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Central Coast II

1.53

Blacktown City

1.67

allows per match

Central Coast II

1.83

Blacktown City

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par

Blacktown City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

Blacktown City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw

56%

Central Coast II or Blacktown City

77%

Draw or Blacktown City

67%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+

15%

Blacktown City wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals

77%

Central Coast II 2+ goals

43%

Central Coast II 3+ goals

19%

Blacktown City 1+ goals

83%

Blacktown City 2+ goals

52%

Blacktown City 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)

43%

Blacktown City (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

Blacktown City away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 1.53 + Blacktown City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Blacktown City attack 1.67 + Central Coast II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Central Coast II scores more

33%

level

23%

Blacktown City scores more

44%

Blacktown City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

M. Fernandez

56'

C. Deng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff