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Blacktown City vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

Blacktown City
Blacktown City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
M. Mallia 78'
J. O'Brien 72'
J. Gibbs 45+1'
D. Niyonkuru 65'
4/14/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 10Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Blacktown City60%
×Draw21%
Central Coast II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown City
2.04
Central Coast II
1.07

Blacktown City creates 91% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 46 away

creates per match

Blacktown City
1.92
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

Blacktown City
1.15
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

Blacktown City+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown City ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Blacktown City or draw
81%
Blacktown City or Central Coast II
79%
Draw or Central Coast II
40%

Winning margin

Blacktown City wins by 2+
36%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Blacktown City 1+ goals
87%
Blacktown City 2+ goals
60%
Blacktown City 3+ goals
33%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
66%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
29%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Blacktown City (draw refunded)
75%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown City at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown City attack 1.92 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.04

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Blacktown City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Blacktown City scores more
60%
level
21%
Central Coast II scores more
19%

Blacktown City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
J. Gibbs
65'
D. Niyonkuru
72'
J. O'Brien
78'
M. Mallia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blacktown City 3 – 1 Central Coast II

Blacktown City beat Central Coast II 3-1 in New South Wales NPL on April 14, 2024.

Goals: J. Gibbs (45+1'), D. Niyonkuru (65'), J. O'Brien (72'), M. Mallia (78').

The match was played at Landen Stadium in Blacktown.