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Central Coast II vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers — New South Wales NPL 2026

Central Coast II
Central Coast II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
A. De Lima 73'
N. Duarte 22', 2'
S. Symons 27'
M. Kouta 7'
7/10/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 17Lambert Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Central Coast II32%
×Draw22%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast II
1.56
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.90

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 22% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 96 away

creates per match

Central Coast II
1.53
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.96

allows per match

Central Coast II
1.83
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.60

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par
APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

APIA Leichhardt Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw
54%
Central Coast II or APIA Leichhardt Tigers
78%
Draw or APIA Leichhardt Tigers
68%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+
15%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals
79%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
46%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
21%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
85%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
56%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)
41%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.60 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 1.53 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.96 + Central Coast II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Central Coast II scores more
32%
level
22%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
46%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
N. Duarte
7'
M. Kouta
22'
N. Duarte
27'
S. Symons
73'
A. De Lima

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Central Coast II 3–2 APIA Leichhardt Tigers

Central Coast II beat APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3-2 in New South Wales NPL on July 10, 2024.

Goals: N. Duarte (2', 22'), M. Kouta (7'), S. Symons (27'), A. De Lima (73').

The match was played at Lambert Park in Sydney.