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APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
M. Kouta 23'
B. Gibson 19'
J. Segreto 14'
L. Smyth 68' (pen)
2/25/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 2Leichhardt Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers61%
×Draw20%
Central Coast II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.12
Central Coast II
1.06

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 100% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 46 away

creates per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.06
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.12
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APIA Leichhardt Tigers ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or draw
82%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers or Central Coast II
80%
Draw or Central Coast II
39%

Winning margin

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
38%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
88%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
62%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
35%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
65%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
29%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
77%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.12 · 98 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 2.06 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.12

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
61%
level
20%
Central Coast II scores more
18%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
J. Segreto
19'
B. Gibson
23'
M. Kouta
68'
L. SmythPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3–1 Central Coast II

APIA Leichhardt Tigers beat Central Coast II 3-1 in New South Wales NPL on February 25, 2024.

Goals: J. Segreto (14'), B. Gibson (19'), M. Kouta (23'), L. Smyth (68' pen).

The match was played at Leichhardt Oval in Sydney.