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Celtic vs Partick — League Cup 2018

Celtic
Celticadvanced
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Partick
Partick
9/25/2019League CupLeague Cup · Quarter-finalsCeltic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Celtic58%
×Draw20%
Partick22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celtic
2.33
Partick
1.40

Celtic creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Celtic
3.00
Partick
2.07

allows per match

Celtic
0.73
Partick
1.67

finishing

Celtic+0.00on par
Partick+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

Partick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Celtic or draw
78%
Celtic or Partick
80%
Draw or Partick
42%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+
36%
Partick wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals
90%
Celtic 2+ goals
67%
Celtic 3+ goals
41%
Partick 1+ goals
75%
Partick 2+ goals
41%
Partick 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)
72%
Partick (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Partick away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 3.00 + Partick defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Partick attack 2.07 + Celtic defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Celtic scores more
58%
level
20%
Partick scores more
22%

Celtic at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celtic vs Partick

Celtic beat Partick 5-0 in League Cup on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Celtic Park in Glasgow.