Partick 0–4 Celtic: Result & Stats | League Cup

Partick

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Celtic

L. McCowan 79'

S. Tounekti 46'

L. Scales 28'

Yang Hyun-Jun 26'

9/21/2025

League Cup · Quarter-finalsFirhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Partick37%

×Draw22%

Celtic41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PartickExpected goals in this matchCeltic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.79

Partick

1.68

Celtic

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

2.36

creates per match

2.50

1.09

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Partick

2.36

Celtic

2.50

allows per match

Partick

1.09

Celtic

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partick+0.00on par

Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partick ↓

Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Partick or draw

59%

Partick or Celtic

78%

Draw or Celtic

63%

Winning margin

Partick wins by 2+

18%

Celtic wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Partick 1+ goals

81%

Partick 2+ goals

50%

Partick 3+ goals

24%

Celtic 1+ goals

83%

Celtic 2+ goals

53%

Celtic 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Partick (draw refunded)

47%

Celtic (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partick at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Celtic away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partick attack 2.36 + Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Celtic attack 2.50 + Partick defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Partick scores more

37%

level

22%

Celtic scores more

41%

Celtic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Liam Scales

26'

Yang Hyun-Jun↳ B. Nygren

28'

L. Scales↳ B. Nygren

46'

A. Samuel← T. Watt

46'

S. Tounekti↳ K. Iheanacho

54'

K. Turner← R. Crawford

54'

O. Smyth← C. Logan

59'

M. Balikwisha← S. Tounekti

59'

P. Bernardo← C. McGregor

59'

D. Maeda← K. Iheanacho

62'

S. Lawless← B. Stanway

69'

A. Engels← R. Hatate

71'

L. McBeth← L. Ashcroft

71'

L. McCowan← B. Nygren

75'

Kyle Turner

79'

L. McCowan↳ M. Balikwisha

Statistics

PartickCeltic

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0