Celta Vigo 2–2 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Celta Vigo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mallorca

Iago Aspas 50' (pen)

Rafinha 20'

A. Budimir 83'

Salva Sevilla 33' (pen)

12/15/2019

La Liga · Round 17Abanca-Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Celta Vigo52%

×Draw24%

Mallorca23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta VigoExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.02

Celta Vigo

1.66

Mallorca

1.02

Celta Vigo creates 63% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 46 away

1.57

creates per match

0.93

1.10

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Celta Vigo

1.57

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Celta Vigo

1.10

Mallorca

1.74

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Celta Vigo-0.01on par

Mallorca-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta Vigo ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Celta Vigo or draw

77%

Celta Vigo or Mallorca

76%

Draw or Mallorca

48%

Winning margin

Celta Vigo wins by 2+

28%

Mallorca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Celta Vigo 1+ goals

81%

Celta Vigo 2+ goals

49%

Celta Vigo 3+ goals

23%

Mallorca 1+ goals

64%

Mallorca 2+ goals

27%

Mallorca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)

69%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta Vigo at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 36 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta Vigo attack 1.57 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.66

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Celta Vigo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Celta Vigo scores more

52%

level

24%

Mallorca scores more

23%

Celta Vigo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Celta Vigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Rafinha Alcántara

Celta Vigo · M

8.5

Match Events

20'

Rafinha↳ L. Olaza

33'

Joseph Aidoo

33'

Salva SevillaPenalty

45'

Ante Budimir

46'

J. Hernández← Febas

50'

Iago AspasPenalty

57'

Néstor Araujo

62'

J. Lago← Salva Sevilla

65'

Raillo

66'

Santi Mina← Brais Méndez

71'

Cucho Hernández

74'

Santi Mina

77'

P. Chavarría← T. Kubo

78'

Raillo

78'

Raillo

79'

Manolo Reina

83'

A. Budimir↳ J. Hernández

90'

Juan Hernández← Kevin Vázquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CeltaMallorca

Overview

66%Possession34%

18Total Shots8

3Corners3

14Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots8

7On Target2

7Off Target3

4Blocked3

13Inside Box7

5Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

514Total Passes248

429Accurate Passes159

83%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1