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Celta Vigo vs Girona — La Liga 2026

Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Girona
Girona
B. Iglesias 90' (pen)
V. Vanat 12'
9/14/2025La LigaLa Liga · Round 4Estadio Abanca Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Celta Vigo45%
×Draw25%
Girona30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta Vigo
1.52
Girona
1.20

Celta Vigo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

creates per match

Celta Vigo
1.47
Girona
1.27

allows per match

Celta Vigo
1.13
Girona
1.57

finishing

Celta Vigo+0.01on par
Girona-0.19scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta Vigo ↓

Girona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Celta Vigo or draw
70%
Celta Vigo or Girona
75%
Draw or Girona
55%

Winning margin

Celta Vigo wins by 2+
22%
Girona wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Celta Vigo 1+ goals
78%
Celta Vigo 2+ goals
45%
Celta Vigo 3+ goals
20%
Girona 1+ goals
70%
Girona 2+ goals
34%
Girona 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)
60%
Girona (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta Vigo at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.13 · 33 matches

Girona away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.57 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta Vigo attack 1.47 + Girona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Girona attack 1.27 + Celta Vigo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Celta Vigo scores more
45%
level
25%
Girona scores more
30%

Celta Vigo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Celta Vigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
V. Vanat↳ I. Martin
26'
Azzedine Ounahi
46'
Portu← J. Roca
59'
B. Iglesias← F. Jutgla
60'
B. Zaragoza← P. Duran
67'
A. Frances← A. Martinez
67'
B. Gil← V. Vanat
70'
H. Alvarez← I. Aspas
70'
C. Starfelt← J. Rodriguez
80'
Alejandro Francés
80'
J. Rueda← S. Carreira
82'
J. E. Solis Romero← I. Martin
82'
D. van de Beek← A. Ounahi
89'
Bryan Gil
90'
B. IglesiasPenalty

Possession

60%Celta

Shots

21Celta

Pass accuracy

52%Celta

Statistics

CeltaGirona
Overview
60%Possession40%
21Total Shots13
2.50Expected Goals (xG)0.64
10Corners3
7Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots13
7On Target8
9Off Target2
5Blocked3
14Inside Box10
7Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
630Total Passes439
556Accurate Passes362
88%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
7Saves6
1.75Goals Prevented1.75
Discipline
7Fouls9
0Yellow Cards3
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Celta Vigo vs Girona

Celta Vigo and Girona drew 1-1 in La Liga on September 14, 2025.

Goals: V. Vanat (12'), B. Iglesias (90' pen).

Celta Vigo controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Abanca Balaídos in Vigo.