Celta Vigo 2–1 Girona: Result & Stats | La Liga

Celta Vigo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Girona

S. Boufal 69'

Iago Aspas 34'

Portu 48'

4/20/2019

La Liga · Round 33Municipal de Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Celta Vigo45%

×Draw25%

Girona30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta VigoExpected goals in this matchGirona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.19

Celta Vigo

1.53

Girona

1.19

Celta Vigo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 37 away

1.47

creates per match

1.26

1.13

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Celta Vigo

1.47

Girona

1.26

allows per match

Celta Vigo

1.13

Girona

1.59

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Celta Vigo+0.01on par

Girona-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta Vigo ↓

Girona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Celta Vigo or draw

70%

Celta Vigo or Girona

75%

Draw or Girona

55%

Winning margin

Celta Vigo wins by 2+

23%

Girona wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Celta Vigo 1+ goals

78%

Celta Vigo 2+ goals

45%

Celta Vigo 3+ goals

20%

Girona 1+ goals

70%

Girona 2+ goals

33%

Girona 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)

60%

Girona (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta Vigo at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.13 · 33 matches

Girona away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta Vigo attack 1.47 + Girona defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

Girona attack 1.26 + Celta Vigo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Celta Vigo scores more

45%

level

25%

Girona scores more

30%

Celta Vigo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Celta Vigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Iago Aspas

Celta Vigo · F

8.3

Match Events

34'

Iago Aspas↳ S. Boufal

46'

Juanpe← P. Roberts

46'

Borja García← Aleix García

47'

Okay Yokuşlu

48'

Portu↳ Alcalá

69'

S. Boufal↳ Iago Aspas

70'

Sofiane Boufal

76'

Douglas Luiz

80'

A. Hjulsager← S. Boufal

85'

K. Soni← Raúl García

88'

Jozabed← R. Boudebouz

90'

David Costas← Iago Aspas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CeltaGirona

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots9

5Corners1

7Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots9

8On Target1

4Off Target6

1Blocked2

10Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

498Total Passes291

418Accurate Passes223

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1