Celta Vigo 2–2 Barcelona: Result & Stats | La Liga

Celta Vigo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Barcelona

Hugo Álvarez 86'

Alfon González 84'

R. Lewandowski 61'

Raphinha 15'

11/23/2024

La Liga · Round 14Estadio Abanca-Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Celta Vigo35%

×Draw24%

Barcelona42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta VigoExpected goals in this matchBarcelona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.65

Celta Vigo

1.49

Barcelona

1.65

Barcelona creates 11% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

1.49

creates per match

2.15

1.16

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Celta Vigo

1.49

Barcelona

2.15

allows per match

Celta Vigo

1.16

Barcelona

1.49

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Celta Vigo-0.01on par

Barcelona+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta Vigo ↓

Barcelona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Celta Vigo or draw

58%

Celta Vigo or Barcelona

76%

Draw or Barcelona

65%

Winning margin

Celta Vigo wins by 2+

16%

Barcelona wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Celta Vigo 1+ goals

77%

Celta Vigo 2+ goals

44%

Celta Vigo 3+ goals

19%

Barcelona 1+ goals

81%

Barcelona 2+ goals

49%

Barcelona 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)

46%

Barcelona (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta Vigo at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.16 · 27 matches

Barcelona away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.49 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta Vigo attack 1.49 + Barcelona defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.49

Barcelona attack 2.15 + Celta Vigo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Celta Vigo scores more

35%

level

24%

Barcelona scores more

42%

Barcelona at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barcelona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Iñaki Peña

Barcelona · G

8.2

Match Events

3'

Gerard Martín

15'

Raphinha↳ J. Koundé

45+1'

Iago Aspas

46'

Héctor Fort← Gerard Martín

60'

Javi Rodríguez

61'

R. Lewandowski

62'

Alfon González← J. Bamba

75'

Marc Casadó

75'

Hugo Sotelo← Fran Beltrán

75'

Borja Iglesias← T. Douvikas

75'

Fermín López← Pedri

75'

F. de Jong← Gavi

80'

82'

82'

84'

86'

Hugo Álvarez↳ Javi Rodríguez

87'

Hugo Sotelo

89'

Pau Víctor← R. Lewandowski

89'

Pablo Torre← Dani Olmo

90+5'

Marcos Alonso

90+3'

Ilaix Moriba

90+1'

Fermín López

90'

Pablo Durán← Iago Aspas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CeltaBarcelona

Overview

41%Possession59%

15Total Shots9

2.60Expected Goals (xG)1.72

5Corners1

13Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots9

8On Target4

4Off Target4

3Blocked1

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

388Total Passes584

294Accurate Passes491

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

0.33Goals Prevented0.33

Discipline

13Fouls9

5Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3