Barcelona 4–3 Celta Vigo: Result & Stats | La Liga

Barcelona

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Celta Vigo

Raphinha 90+8' (pen), 68'

Dani Olmo 65'

Ferran Torres 12'

Borja Iglesias 62', 52', 15'

4/19/2025

La Liga · Round 32Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Barcelona56%

×Draw22%

Celta Vigo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarcelonaExpected goals in this matchCelta Vigo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.17

Barcelona

1.96

Celta Vigo

1.17

Barcelona creates 68% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 29 away

2.46

creates per match

1.29

1.05

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Barcelona

2.46

Celta Vigo

1.29

allows per match

Barcelona

1.05

Celta Vigo

1.45

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Barcelona+0.54scores more

Celta Vigo+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona ↓

Celta Vigo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Barcelona or draw

77%

Barcelona or Celta Vigo

78%

Draw or Celta Vigo

44%

Winning margin

Barcelona wins by 2+

33%

Celta Vigo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Barcelona 1+ goals

86%

Barcelona 2+ goals

58%

Barcelona 3+ goals

31%

Celta Vigo 1+ goals

69%

Celta Vigo 2+ goals

33%

Celta Vigo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Barcelona (draw refunded)

71%

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.05 · 32 matches

Celta Vigo away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona attack 2.46 + Celta Vigo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.96

Celta Vigo attack 1.29 + Barcelona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Barcelona scores more

56%

level

22%

Celta Vigo scores more

23%

Barcelona at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Barcelona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Raphinha

Barcelona · F

10.0

Match Events

12'

Ferran Torres↳ Iñigo Martínez

15'

Borja Iglesias↳ Pablo Durán

46'

Óscar Mingueza← Iker Losada

52'

Borja Iglesias↳ Yoel Lago

59'

Lamine Yamal← Ferran Torres

59'

Dani Olmo← Fermín López

60'

Alfon González← W. Swedberg

62'

Borja Iglesias↳ Sergio Carreira

65'

Dani Olmo↳ Raphinha

68'

Raphinha↳ Lamine Yamal

73'

Iago Aspas← Borja Iglesias

74'

Fer López← Pablo Durán

78'

Gavi← R. Lewandowski

87'

Pau Víctor← Gerard Martín

87'

Eric García← Pau Cubarsí

89'

Hugo Sotelo← I. Moriba

90+3'

Iñigo Martínez

90+2'

Raphinha

90+6'

Dani OlmoPenalty confirmed

90+8'

Óscar Mingueza

90+2'

Iago Aspas

90+8'

RaphinhaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaCelta

Overview

72%Possession28%

18Total Shots11

2.46Expected Goals (xG)1.97

4Corners1

10Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots11

6On Target8

10Off Target2

2Blocked1

10Inside Box11

8Outside Box0

Passing

72%Possession28%

754Total Passes286

676Accurate Passes212

90%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

-2.03Goals Prevented-2.03

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Barcelona vs Celta Vigo

Barcelona beat Celta Vigo 4-3 in La Liga on April 19, 2025.

Goals: Ferran Torres (12'), Borja Iglesias (15', 52', 62'), Dani Olmo (65'), Raphinha (68', 90+8' pen).

Barcelona controlled possession (72%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys in Barcelona.

Barcelona vs Celta Vigo — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Barcelona vs Celta Vigo