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Celta de Vigo II vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
CANC
22:00
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
5/2/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Celta de Vigo II41%
×Draw25%
Atlético Madrid II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo II
1.46
Atlético Madrid II
1.29

Celta de Vigo II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 13 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.68
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.12
Atlético Madrid II
1.23

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw
67%
Celta de Vigo II or Atlético Madrid II
75%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
59%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
77%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
43%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
18%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
55%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.46 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more
41%
level
25%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
33%

Celta de Vigo II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Celta de Vigo II vs Atlético Madrid II — Match Preview

Celta de Vigo II face Atlético Madrid II on May 2, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Celta de Vigo II host Atlético Madrid II at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.