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Atlético Madrid II vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
12/15/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Madrid II54%
×Draw24%
Celta de Vigo II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
1.75
Celta de Vigo II
1.03

Atlético Madrid II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
2.20
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.73
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
78%
Atlético Madrid II or Celta de Vigo II
76%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
46%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
30%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
83%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
52%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
25%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
64%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
28%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
71%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 2.20 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.75

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
54%
level
24%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
22%

Atlético Madrid II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid II vs Celta de Vigo II

Atlético Madrid II beat Celta de Vigo II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.