Celaya 0–0 CDS Tampico Madero: Result & Stats

Celaya

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CDS Tampico Madero

4/27/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Miguel Alemán Valdés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Celaya47%

×Draw28%

CDS Tampico Madero24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelayaExpected goals in this matchCDS Tampico Madero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.86

Celaya

1.32

CDS Tampico Madero

0.86

Celaya creates 53% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 37 away

1.51

creates per match

0.86

0.87

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Celaya

1.51

CDS Tampico Madero

0.86

allows per match

Celaya

0.87

CDS Tampico Madero

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par

CDS Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

CDS Tampico Madero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Celaya or draw

76%

Celaya or CDS Tampico Madero

72%

Draw or CDS Tampico Madero

53%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+

22%

CDS Tampico Madero wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals

73%

Celaya 2+ goals

38%

Celaya 3+ goals

15%

CDS Tampico Madero 1+ goals

58%

CDS Tampico Madero 2+ goals

21%

CDS Tampico Madero 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)

66%

CDS Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

CDS Tampico Madero away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + CDS Tampico Madero defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

CDS Tampico Madero attack 0.86 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Celaya scores more

47%

level

28%

CDS Tampico Madero scores more

24%

Celaya at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff