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CDS Tampico Madero vs Celaya — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

CDS Tampico Madero
CDS Tampico Maderoadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Celaya
Celaya
4/24/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Tamaulipas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

CDS Tampico Madero45%
×Draw28%
Celaya27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CDS Tampico Madero
1.31
Celaya
0.94

CDS Tampico Madero creates 39% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 119 away

creates per match

CDS Tampico Madero
1.49
Celaya
1.15

allows per match

CDS Tampico Madero
0.73
Celaya
1.13

finishing

CDS Tampico Madero+0.00on par
Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDS Tampico Madero ↓

Celaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CDS Tampico Madero or draw
73%
CDS Tampico Madero or Celaya
72%
Draw or Celaya
55%

Winning margin

CDS Tampico Madero wins by 2+
21%
Celaya wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CDS Tampico Madero 1+ goals
73%
CDS Tampico Madero 2+ goals
38%
CDS Tampico Madero 3+ goals
14%
Celaya 1+ goals
61%
Celaya 2+ goals
24%
Celaya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CDS Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
63%
Celaya (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDS Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDS Tampico Madero attack 1.49 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Celaya attack 1.15 + CDS Tampico Madero defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CDS Tampico Madero scores more
45%
level
28%
Celaya scores more
27%

CDS Tampico Madero at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CDS Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: CDS Tampico Madero 1–0 Celaya

CDS Tampico Madero beat Celaya 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Tamaulipas in Tampico y Ciudad Madero.