Celaya 1–1 Atletico San Luis: Result & Stats

Celaya

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico San Luis

4/17/2019

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Celaya40%

×Draw28%

Atletico San Luis32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelayaExpected goals in this matchAtletico San Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.10

Celaya

1.25

Atletico San Luis

1.10

Celaya creates 14% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 21 away

1.51

creates per match

1.33

0.87

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Celaya

1.51

Atletico San Luis

1.33

allows per match

Celaya

0.87

Atletico San Luis

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celaya+0.00on par

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celaya ↓

Atletico San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Celaya or draw

68%

Celaya or Atletico San Luis

72%

Draw or Atletico San Luis

60%

Winning margin

Celaya wins by 2+

17%

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Celaya 1+ goals

71%

Celaya 2+ goals

36%

Celaya 3+ goals

13%

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

67%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

30%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Celaya (draw refunded)

55%

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celaya at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celaya attack 1.51 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atletico San Luis attack 1.33 + Celaya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Celaya scores more

40%

level

28%

Atletico San Luis scores more

32%

Celaya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Celaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Celaya 1–1 Atletico San Luis

Celaya and Atletico San Luis drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya).

Celaya vs Atletico San Luis — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Liga de Expansión MX: Celaya 1–1 Atletico San Luis