Atletico San Luis 2–1 Celaya: Result & Stats

Atletico San Luis

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Celaya

4/21/2019

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez (San Luis Potosí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atletico San Luis47%

×Draw28%

Celaya24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico San LuisExpected goals in this matchCelaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.85

Atletico San Luis

1.31

Celaya

0.85

Atletico San Luis creates 54% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 119 away

1.50

creates per match

1.15

0.56

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Atletico San Luis

1.50

Celaya

1.15

allows per match

Atletico San Luis

0.56

Celaya

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Celaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw

76%

Atletico San Luis or Celaya

72%

Draw or Celaya

53%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

22%

Celaya wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

73%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

38%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

14%

Celaya 1+ goals

57%

Celaya 2+ goals

21%

Celaya 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

66%

Celaya (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.50 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Celaya attack 1.15 + Atletico San Luis defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more

47%

level

28%

Celaya scores more

24%

Atletico San Luis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff