Ceilândia 0–1 Brasiliense: Result & Stats

Ceilândia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brasiliense

Joaozinho 60'

2/2/2025

League #610 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Maria de Lourdes Abadia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ceilândia29%

×Draw28%

Brasiliense44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeilândiaExpected goals in this matchBrasiliense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.33

Ceilândia

1.02

Brasiliense

1.33

Brasiliense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.55

creates per match

1.30

1.36

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Ceilândia

1.55

Brasiliense

1.30

allows per match

Ceilândia

1.36

Brasiliense

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceilândia+0.00on par

Brasiliense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceilândia ↓

Brasiliense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ceilândia or draw

56%

Ceilândia or Brasiliense

72%

Draw or Brasiliense

71%

Winning margin

Ceilândia wins by 2+

11%

Brasiliense wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ceilândia 1+ goals

64%

Ceilândia 2+ goals

27%

Ceilândia 3+ goals

8%

Brasiliense 1+ goals

74%

Brasiliense 2+ goals

38%

Brasiliense 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ceilândia (draw refunded)

40%

Brasiliense (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceilândia at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Brasiliense away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceilândia attack 1.55 + Brasiliense defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.02

Brasiliense attack 1.30 + Ceilândia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ceilândia scores more

29%

level

28%

Brasiliense scores more

44%

Brasiliense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brasiliense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Joaozinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff