Brasiliense 2–3 Ceilândia: Result & Stats

Brasiliense

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Ceilândia

Tarta 33'

Jean Pyerre 3'

J. Cardoso 90+4', 88', 86'

2/28/2026

League #610 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Brasiliense67%

×Draw20%

Ceilândia13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrasilienseExpected goals in this matchCeilândia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.77

Brasiliense

2.05

Ceilândia

0.77

Brasiliense creates 166% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

2.11

creates per match

0.75

0.78

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Brasiliense

2.11

Ceilândia

0.75

allows per match

Brasiliense

0.78

Ceilândia

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasiliense+0.00on par

Ceilândia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasiliense ↓

Ceilândia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Brasiliense or draw

87%

Brasiliense or Ceilândia

80%

Draw or Ceilândia

33%

Winning margin

Brasiliense wins by 2+

42%

Ceilândia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Brasiliense 1+ goals

87%

Brasiliense 2+ goals

61%

Brasiliense 3+ goals

33%

Ceilândia 1+ goals

54%

Ceilândia 2+ goals

18%

Ceilândia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Brasiliense (draw refunded)

84%

Ceilândia (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasiliense at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Ceilândia away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasiliense attack 2.11 + Ceilândia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Ceilândia attack 0.75 + Brasiliense defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Brasiliense scores more

67%

level

20%

Ceilândia scores more

13%

Brasiliense at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Brasiliense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Jean Pyerre

33'

Tarta

86'

J. Cardoso

88'

J. Cardoso

90+4'

J. Cardoso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff