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Cegledi VSE vs BKV Előre — NB III - Southeast 2023

Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
BKV Előre
BKV Előre
11/12/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 15Malomtó széli sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cegledi VSE19%
×Draw19%
BKV Előre62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cegledi VSE
1.31
BKV Előre
2.47

BKV Előre creates 89% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cegledi VSE
0.80
BKV Előre
1.47

allows per match

Cegledi VSE
3.47
BKV Előre
1.82

finishing

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par
BKV Előre+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cegledi VSE ↓

BKV Előre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Cegledi VSE or draw
38%
Cegledi VSE or BKV Előre
81%
Draw or BKV Előre
81%

Winning margin

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
8%
BKV Előre wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
73%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
38%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
14%
BKV Előre 1+ goals
91%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
70%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
23%
BKV Előre (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cegledi VSE at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

BKV Előre away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cegledi VSE attack 0.80 + BKV Előre defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.31

BKV Előre attack 1.47 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cegledi VSE scores more
19%
level
19%
BKV Előre scores more
62%

BKV Előre at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cegledi VSE vs BKV Előre

Cegledi VSE and BKV Előre drew 1-1 in NB III - Southeast on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Malomtó széli sporttelep in Cegléd.