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BKV Előre vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

BKV Előre
BKV Előre
FT
10 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
5/26/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 30BKV Előre Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

BKV Előre59%
×Draw19%
Cegledi VSE21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKV Előre
2.35
Cegledi VSE
1.35

BKV Előre creates 74% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

BKV Előre
1.51
Cegledi VSE
1.13

allows per match

BKV Előre
1.58
Cegledi VSE
3.20

finishing

BKV Előre+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKV Előre ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

BKV Előre or draw
79%
BKV Előre or Cegledi VSE
81%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
41%

Winning margin

BKV Előre wins by 2+
38%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

BKV Előre 1+ goals
90%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
68%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
41%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
74%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
39%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

BKV Előre (draw refunded)
74%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKV Előre at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKV Előre attack 1.51 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Cegledi VSE attack 1.13 + BKV Előre defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

BKV Előre scores more
59%
level
19%
Cegledi VSE scores more
21%

BKV Előre at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BKV Előre vs Cegledi VSE

BKV Előre beat Cegledi VSE 10-0 in NB III - Southeast on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at BKV Előre Stadion in Budapest.