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Cegledi VSE vs Bekescsaba 1912 — NB III - Southeast 2023

Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bekescsaba 1912
Bekescsaba 1912
8/2/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 2Malomtó széli sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cegledi VSE6%
×Draw11%
Bekescsaba 191283%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cegledi VSE
0.67
Bekescsaba 1912
3.00

Bekescsaba 1912 creates 348% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cegledi VSE
0.80
Bekescsaba 1912
2.53

allows per match

Cegledi VSE
3.47
Bekescsaba 1912
0.53

finishing

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par
Bekescsaba 1912+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cegledi VSE ↓

Bekescsaba 1912 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–212%
0–312%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Cegledi VSE or draw
17%
Cegledi VSE or Bekescsaba 1912
89%
Draw or Bekescsaba 1912
94%

Winning margin

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
1%
Bekescsaba 1912 wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
49%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
15%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
3%
Bekescsaba 1912 1+ goals
95%
Bekescsaba 1912 2+ goals
79%
Bekescsaba 1912 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
6%
Bekescsaba 1912 (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cegledi VSE at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

Bekescsaba 1912 away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cegledi VSE attack 0.80 + Bekescsaba 1912 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.67

Bekescsaba 1912 attack 2.53 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Cegledi VSE scores more
6%
level
11%
Bekescsaba 1912 scores more
83%

Bekescsaba 1912 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Bekescsaba 1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Cegledi VSE 0–1 Bekescsaba 1912

Bekescsaba 1912 beat Cegledi VSE 1-0 in NB III - Southeast on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Malomtó széli sporttelep in Cegléd.