Bekescsaba 1912 3–0 Cegledi VSE: Result & Stats

Bekescsaba 1912

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cegledi VSE

11/26/2023

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 17Kórház utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bekescsaba 191279%

×Draw12%

Cegledi VSE9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bekescsaba 1912Expected goals in this matchCegledi VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.20

1.00

Bekescsaba 1912

3.20

Cegledi VSE

1.00

Bekescsaba 1912 creates 220% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

3.20

creates per match

1.13

0.87

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Bekescsaba 1912

3.20

Cegledi VSE

1.13

allows per match

Bekescsaba 1912

0.87

Cegledi VSE

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bekescsaba 1912+0.00on par

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bekescsaba 1912 ↓

Cegledi VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Bekescsaba 1912 or draw

91%

Bekescsaba 1912 or Cegledi VSE

88%

Draw or Cegledi VSE

21%

Winning margin

Bekescsaba 1912 wins by 2+

60%

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bekescsaba 1912 1+ goals

96%

Bekescsaba 1912 2+ goals

82%

Bekescsaba 1912 3+ goals

60%

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals

63%

Cegledi VSE 2+ goals

26%

Cegledi VSE 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bekescsaba 1912 (draw refunded)

90%

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bekescsaba 1912 at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bekescsaba 1912 attack 3.20 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 3.20

Cegledi VSE attack 1.13 + Bekescsaba 1912 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Bekescsaba 1912 scores more

79%

level

12%

Cegledi VSE scores more

9%

Bekescsaba 1912 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Bekescsaba 1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Bekescsaba 1912 3–0 Cegledi VSE

Bekescsaba 1912 beat Cegledi VSE 3-0 in NB III - Southeast on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Kórház utcai stadion in Békéscsaba.

Bekescsaba 1912 vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

NB III - Southeast: Bekescsaba 1912 3–0 Cegledi VSE