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Cegledi VSE vs Bánk — NB III - Northwest 2019

Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Bánk
Bánk
3/19/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 26Malomtó széli sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cegledi VSE49%
×Draw22%
Bánk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cegledi VSE
2.00
Bánk
1.52

Cegledi VSE creates 32% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cegledi VSE
1.19
Bánk
1.06

allows per match

Cegledi VSE
1.97
Bánk
2.82

finishing

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par
Bánk+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cegledi VSE ↓

Bánk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cegledi VSE or draw
70%
Cegledi VSE or Bánk
78%
Draw or Bánk
51%

Winning margin

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
28%
Bánk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
86%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
59%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
32%
Bánk 1+ goals
78%
Bánk 2+ goals
45%
Bánk 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
62%
Bánk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cegledi VSE at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.97 · 37 matches

Bánk away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cegledi VSE attack 1.19 + Bánk defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.00

Bánk attack 1.06 + Cegledi VSE defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cegledi VSE scores more
49%
level
22%
Bánk scores more
30%

Cegledi VSE at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cegledi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Cegledi VSE 3–2 Bánk

Cegledi VSE beat Bánk 3-2 in NB III - Northwest on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Malomtó széli sporttelep in Cegléd.