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Bánk vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Bánk
Bánk
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
9/4/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 7Berkenyei Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bánk31%
×Draw23%
Cegledi VSE46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bánk
1.42
Cegledi VSE
1.79

Cegledi VSE creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bánk
0.74
Cegledi VSE
1.06

allows per match

Bánk
2.53
Cegledi VSE
2.11

finishing

Bánk+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bánk ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bánk or draw
54%
Bánk or Cegledi VSE
77%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
69%

Winning margin

Bánk wins by 2+
14%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Bánk 1+ goals
76%
Bánk 2+ goals
41%
Bánk 3+ goals
17%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
83%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
53%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bánk (draw refunded)
40%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bánk at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bánk attack 0.74 + Cegledi VSE defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cegledi VSE attack 1.06 + Bánk defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bánk scores more
31%
level
23%
Cegledi VSE scores more
46%

Cegledi VSE at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cegledi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bánk vs Cegledi VSE

Cegledi VSE beat Bánk 3-1 in NB III - Northwest on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Berkenyei Sportpálya in Berkenye.