Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ceares vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ceares
Ceares
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
3/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio La Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Ceares49%
×Draw26%
Avilés Stadium25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceares
1.50
Avilés Stadium
1.01

Ceares creates 49% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 80 away

creates per match

Ceares
1.25
Avilés Stadium
0.85

allows per match

Ceares
1.17
Avilés Stadium
1.75

finishing

Ceares+0.00on par
Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceares ↓

Avilés Stadium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ceares or draw
75%
Ceares or Avilés Stadium
74%
Draw or Avilés Stadium
51%

Winning margin

Ceares wins by 2+
24%
Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ceares 1+ goals
78%
Ceares 2+ goals
44%
Ceares 3+ goals
19%
Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
64%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
27%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ceares (draw refunded)
66%
Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceares at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceares attack 1.25 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Ceares defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ceares scores more
49%
level
26%
Avilés Stadium scores more
25%

Ceares at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ceares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceares vs Avilés Stadium

Ceares and Avilés Stadium drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Cruz in Gijón.