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Avilés Stadium vs Ceares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ceares
Ceares
11/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Campo Muro de Zaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Avilés Stadium29%
×Draw29%
Ceares41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avilés Stadium
0.96
Ceares
1.20

Ceares creates 25% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 93 away

creates per match

Avilés Stadium
0.74
Ceares
1.20

allows per match

Avilés Stadium
1.20
Ceares
1.19

finishing

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par
Ceares+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avilés Stadium ↓

Ceares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Avilés Stadium or draw
59%
Avilés Stadium or Ceares
71%
Draw or Ceares
71%

Winning margin

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
11%
Ceares wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
62%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
25%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
7%
Ceares 1+ goals
70%
Ceares 2+ goals
34%
Ceares 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
41%
Ceares (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avilés Stadium at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Ceares away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avilés Stadium attack 0.74 + Ceares defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ceares attack 1.20 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avilés Stadium scores more
29%
level
29%
Ceares scores more
41%

Ceares at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ceares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Avilés Stadium 0–0 Ceares

Avilés Stadium and Ceares drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Muro de Zaro in Avilés.