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Ceara vs ABC — Serie B 2026

Ceara
Ceara
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ABC
ABC
8/6/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 22Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ceara53%
×Draw27%
ABC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.47
ABC
0.79

Ceara creates 86% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.41
ABC
0.68

allows per match

Ceara
0.90
ABC
1.53

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par
ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

ABC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
80%
Ceara or ABC
73%
Draw or ABC
47%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
27%
ABC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
77%
Ceara 2+ goals
43%
Ceara 3+ goals
18%
ABC 1+ goals
55%
ABC 2+ goals
19%
ABC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
73%
ABC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.90 · 49 matches

ABC away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.41 + ABC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

ABC attack 0.68 + Ceara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ceara scores more
53%
level
27%
ABC scores more
20%

Ceara at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceara vs ABC

Ceara beat ABC 1-0 in Serie B on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza, Ceará.