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ABC vs Ceara — Copa do Nordeste 2020

ABC
ABC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ceara
Ceara
3/2/2021Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 1Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

ABC41%
×Draw27%
Ceara32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.32
Ceara
1.12

ABC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

creates per match

ABC
1.77
Ceara
1.24

allows per match

ABC
1.00
Ceara
0.88

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Ceara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

ABC or draw
68%
ABC or Ceara
73%
Draw or Ceara
59%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
19%
Ceara wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
73%
ABC 2+ goals
38%
ABC 3+ goals
15%
Ceara 1+ goals
67%
Ceara 2+ goals
31%
Ceara 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
57%
Ceara (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Ceara away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.77 + Ceara defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ceara attack 1.24 + ABC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ABC scores more
41%
level
27%
Ceara scores more
32%

ABC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ABC 1 – 1 Ceara

ABC and Ceara drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on March 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.