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CE Sant Jordi vs Binissalem — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

CE Sant Jordi
CE Sant Jordi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Binissalem
Binissalem
9/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 1Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CE Sant Jordi27%
×Draw23%
Binissalem50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CE Sant Jordi
1.26
Binissalem
1.79

Binissalem creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 113 away

creates per match

CE Sant Jordi
1.20
Binissalem
0.92

allows per match

CE Sant Jordi
2.67
Binissalem
1.32

finishing

CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par
Binissalem+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CE Sant Jordi ↓

Binissalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

CE Sant Jordi or draw
50%
CE Sant Jordi or Binissalem
77%
Draw or Binissalem
73%

Winning margin

CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
11%
Binissalem wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
72%
CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
36%
CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
13%
Binissalem 1+ goals
83%
Binissalem 2+ goals
53%
Binissalem 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
35%
Binissalem (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Binissalem away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CE Sant Jordi attack 1.20 + Binissalem defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Binissalem attack 0.92 + CE Sant Jordi defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CE Sant Jordi scores more
27%
level
23%
Binissalem scores more
50%

Binissalem at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Binissalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CE Sant Jordi 1 – 2 Binissalem

Binissalem beat CE Sant Jordi 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa in Mallorca.