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Binissalem vs CE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Binissalem
Binissalem
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
CE Sant Jordi
CE Sant Jordi
1/14/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Estadio Miquel Pons

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Binissalem72%
×Draw17%
CE Sant Jordi11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binissalem
2.35
CE Sant Jordi
0.78

Binissalem creates 201% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

creates per match

Binissalem
1.09
CE Sant Jordi
0.60

allows per match

Binissalem
0.96
CE Sant Jordi
3.60

finishing

Binissalem+0.00on par
CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binissalem ↓

CE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Binissalem or draw
89%
Binissalem or CE Sant Jordi
83%
Draw or CE Sant Jordi
28%

Winning margin

Binissalem wins by 2+
49%
CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Binissalem 1+ goals
90%
Binissalem 2+ goals
68%
Binissalem 3+ goals
41%
CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
54%
CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
18%
CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Binissalem (draw refunded)
87%
CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binissalem at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.96 · 115 matches

CE Sant Jordi away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binissalem attack 1.09 + CE Sant Jordi defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.35

CE Sant Jordi attack 0.60 + Binissalem defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Binissalem scores more
72%
level
17%
CE Sant Jordi scores more
11%

Binissalem at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Binissalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Binissalem vs CE Sant Jordi

Binissalem and CE Sant Jordi drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Miquel Pons in Mallorca.