CE Sant Jordi 1–3 Andratx: Result & Stats

CE Sant Jordi

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Andratx

3/25/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 26Camp de Futbol Sant Jordi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CE Sant Jordi20%

×Draw20%

Andratx60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CE Sant JordiExpected goals in this matchAndratx

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.23

CE Sant Jordi

1.21

Andratx

2.23

Andratx creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 41 away

1.20

creates per match

1.80

2.67

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

CE Sant Jordi

1.20

Andratx

1.80

allows per match

CE Sant Jordi

2.67

Andratx

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Andratx+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CE Sant Jordi ↓

Andratx →

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

CE Sant Jordi or draw

40%

CE Sant Jordi or Andratx

80%

Draw or Andratx

80%

Winning margin

CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

Andratx wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

70%

CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

34%

CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

12%

Andratx 1+ goals

89%

Andratx 2+ goals

65%

Andratx 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

25%

Andratx (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Andratx away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CE Sant Jordi attack 1.20 + Andratx defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Andratx attack 1.80 + CE Sant Jordi defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

CE Sant Jordi scores more

20%

level

20%

Andratx scores more

60%

Andratx at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Andratx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff