Andratx 3–0 CE Sant Jordi: Result & Stats

Andratx

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CE Sant Jordi

11/26/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Camp Municipal Sa Plana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Andratx82%

×Draw12%

CE Sant Jordi6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndratxExpected goals in this matchCE Sant Jordi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.91

0.67

Andratx

2.91

CE Sant Jordi

0.67

Andratx creates 334% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 15 away

2.21

creates per match

0.60

0.74

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Andratx

2.21

CE Sant Jordi

0.60

allows per match

Andratx

0.74

CE Sant Jordi

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andratx+0.00on par

CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andratx ↓

CE Sant Jordi →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Andratx or draw

94%

Andratx or CE Sant Jordi

88%

Draw or CE Sant Jordi

18%

Winning margin

Andratx wins by 2+

63%

CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

Team goals

Andratx 1+ goals

94%

Andratx 2+ goals

78%

Andratx 3+ goals

54%

CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

49%

CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

15%

CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Andratx (draw refunded)

93%

CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Andratx at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

CE Sant Jordi away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Andratx attack 2.21 + CE Sant Jordi defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.91

CE Sant Jordi attack 0.60 + Andratx defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 82%?"

Andratx scores more

82%

level

12%

CE Sant Jordi scores more

Andratx at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Andratx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff