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CD Olmedo vs Orense SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
9/12/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 31Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba (Riobamba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

CD Olmedo39%
×Draw27%
Orense SC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Olmedo
1.31
Orense SC
1.19

CD Olmedo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 42 away

creates per match

CD Olmedo
1.32
Orense SC
1.19

allows per match

CD Olmedo
1.18
Orense SC
1.31

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw
66%
CD Olmedo or Orense SC
73%
Draw or Orense SC
61%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+
18%
Orense SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals
73%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
38%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
14%
Orense SC 1+ goals
70%
Orense SC 2+ goals
33%
Orense SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
54%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Orense SC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.32 + Orense SC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Orense SC attack 1.19 + CD Olmedo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CD Olmedo scores more
39%
level
27%
Orense SC scores more
34%

CD Olmedo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CD Olmedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Olmedo vs Orense SC

CD Olmedo beat Orense SC 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba (Riobamba).